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Strait of Hormuz May Stay Disrupted Until 2027, Prediction Markets Say
CNBC·Monday, 13 July 2026
Traders on Kalshi now see only a 43% chance that Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to normal by December 1, following the latest round of US-Iran strikes. Full normalisation is not expected until 2027. Oil prices have already risen in response.
Why It Matters
The Strait of Hormuz carries a huge portion of the world's oil supply, so a prolonged blockage keeps energy prices elevated globally and squeezes economies that depend on oil imports.
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